Canaccord Coffee Break

Ferguson’s Law: can a lesson from history help the US avoid structural decline?

Gold is glowing in 2025, up 46% year-to-date. But what does this tell us about the state and future of US debt? 
Jane Parry, Group Chief Marketing Officer, sits down with one of our investment experts to explore the key mechanisms behind the US debt ceiling, the concerns it raises for investors, and how ‘Ferguson’s Law’ - the idea that once a nation spends more on interest than on defence, it has crossed the tipping point into structural decline - offers a sobering lesson from history.
Tom Hibbert, Multi-Asset Strategist, also discusses how the US economy is strong and its companies are earning well but as it continues to be saddled with debt and spends more on debt interest, how long can its foundations hold?
If you have any feedback on this episode, the podcast overall or questions regarding future topics, please email coffeebreak@canaccord.com. We’d love to hear from you.
 
Investment involves risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not get back the amount originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
The information provided is not to be treated as specific advice. It has no regard for the specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any specific person or entity. It is accurate at the time of recording and is subject to change.
 
Canaccord Wealth is the trading name of Canaccord Genuity Wealth Limited (CGWL), CG Wealth Planning Limited (CGWPL), Canaccord Genuity Wealth (International) Limited (CGWIL) and Canaccord Asset Management (International) Ltd (CAMIL), which are all subsidiaries of Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. 
CGWL and CGWPL are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (reference numbers: 194927 and 594155). CGWL and CGWPL are registered in England & Wales at 88 Wood Street, London, EC2V 7QR (numbers 03739694 and 08284862).
CGWIL is licensed and regulated by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission, the Isle of Man Financial Services Authority and the Jersey Financial Services Commission. CGWIL is authorised by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) as a financial services provider in South Africa, FSP no. 48055. CGWIL is registered in Guernsey at Dorey Court, Elizabeth Avenue, St. Peter Port, Guernsey, GY1 2HT (number 22761).
CAMIL is licensed and regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. Its Guernsey branch is licensed and regulated by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission and its Isle of Man branch is licensed and regulated by the Isle of Man Financial Services Authority. is authorised by the FSCA as a financial services provider in South Africa. Registered in Jersey No: 143275. Registered office: Third Floor, No 1 Grenville Street, St. Helier, Jersey, JE2 4UF.

Stock markets defy September slump

September is historically the weakest for stock market performance. But not this year. Jane Parry, Group Chief Marketing Officer sits down with one of our investment experts to explore the key themes shaping markets and investor sentiment and explores the reasons behind the unseasonally positive performance of markets this month - particularly in the US.
If you have any feedback on this episode, the podcast overall or questions regarding future topics, please email coffeebreak@canaccord.com. We’d love to hear from you.
 
Investment involves risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not get back the amount originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
The information provided is not to be treated as specific advice. It has no regard for the specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any specific person or entity. It is accurate at the time of recording and is subject to change.
 
Canaccord Wealth is the trading name of Canaccord Genuity Wealth Limited (CGWL), CG Wealth Planning Limited (CGWPL), Canaccord Genuity Wealth (International) Limited (CGWIL) and Canaccord Asset Management (International) Ltd (CAMIL), which are all subsidiaries of Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. 
CGWL and CGWPL are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (reference numbers: 194927 and 594155). CGWL and CGWPL are registered in England & Wales at 88 Wood Street, London, EC2V 7QR (numbers 03739694 and 08284862).
CGWIL is licensed and regulated by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission, the Isle of Man Financial Services Authority and the Jersey Financial Services Commission. CGWIL is authorised by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) as a financial services provider in South Africa, FSP no. 48055. CGWIL is registered in Guernsey at Dorey Court, Elizabeth Avenue, St. Peter Port, Guernsey, GY1 2HT (number 22761).
CAMIL is licensed and regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. Its Guernsey branch is licensed and regulated by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission and its Isle of Man branch is licensed and regulated by the Isle of Man Financial Services Authority. is authorised by the FSCA as a financial services provider in South Africa. Registered in Jersey No: 143275. Registered office: Third Floor, No 1 Grenville Street, St. Helier, Jersey, JE2 4UF.

Assault on the Fed: the politics of central bank independence

In our first episode, Tom Hibbert, Multi-Asset Strategist, breaks down the ‘gain-of-function’ metaphor in the context of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). He considers how its recent policy choices – amid a public battle with the Trump administration – have prompted concerns over the Fed’s independence, with unconventional tools, an expanding remit and growing institutional complexity all coming into focus.
If you have any feedback on this episode, the podcast overall or questions regarding future topics, please email coffeebreak@canaccord.com. We’d love to hear from you.
 
Investment involves risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not get back the amount originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
The information provided is not to be treated as specific advice. It has no regard for the specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any specific person or entity. It is accurate at the time of recording and is subject to change.
 
Canaccord Wealth is the trading name of Canaccord Genuity Wealth Limited (CGWL), CG Wealth Planning Limited (CGWPL), Canaccord Genuity Wealth (International) Limited (CGWIL) and Canaccord Asset Management (International) Ltd (CAMIL), which are all subsidiaries of Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. 
CGWL and CGWPL are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (reference numbers: 194927 and 594155). CGWL and CGWPL are registered in England & Wales at 88 Wood Street, London, EC2V 7QR (numbers 03739694 and 08284862).
CGWIL is licensed and regulated by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission, the Isle of Man Financial Services Authority and the Jersey Financial Services Commission. CGWIL is authorised by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) as a financial services provider in South Africa, FSP no. 48055. CGWIL is registered in Guernsey at Dorey Court, Elizabeth Avenue, St. Peter Port, Guernsey, GY1 2HT (number 22761).
CAMIL is licensed and regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. Its Guernsey branch is licensed and regulated by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission and its Isle of Man branch is licensed and regulated by the Isle of Man Financial Services Authority. is authorised by the FSCA as a financial services provider in South Africa. Registered in Jersey No: 143275. Registered office: Third Floor, No 1 Grenville Street, St. Helier, Jersey, JE2 4UF.